Although new president Thein Sein has already taken the office in the last month, no visible sign of political reform have appeared so far. There are over two thousands prisoners of conscience in Burma’s remote prisons. There is also no gesture of a softening stance on political exiles and civil war victims. The worst is that Burma’s Army is still launching offensives upon the ethnic armed groups who resist only for their basic rights, especially for self-determination.
The return of a wider civil war is knocking at the country’s door. Currently, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)’s 5th Brigade led by Col. Saw Lah Bwe is fighting against Burma Army’s troops in Karen State by using guerilla warfare.
The Burmese military announced if ceasefire groups do not respond with an agreement on the Border Guard Force (BGF) program, they will automatically be recognized as outlaw groups. But the headquarters of UWSA have said there would be no more answer from them.
The United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), also known as Mongla group, have repeatedly declined to follow the Border Guard Force (BGF) program. Furthermore, the SSA North, led by Maj-Gen Pangfa, has been operating along adjoining areas which held by the non-ceasefire SSA South led by Lt-Gen Yawdserk.
Recently, China cautioned its citizens who work in Burma’s Shan State, bordering the country’s southwest Yunnan province, to come back home, the Kachin News Group [KNG] said.
The urgent warning was released by Chinese authorities at Mangshi, because fighting may flare between ethnic armed groups and the Burmese Army in the province.  China is anxious recent skirmishing between the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) and Burmese troops may widen to include two more influential ethnic armed groups – the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and United Wa State Army (UWSA) – also located in the region, sources close to China-Burma border authorities said.
The SSA-N and KIA are military allies and members of the ethnic military and political alliance known as the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), which was formed on the Thai-Burma border in last February. Additionally, a breakaway faction of SSA-North Brigade 1 led by Col Pang Fa also refused to join the regime’s Border Guard Force (BGF) plan under Burmese army command. It is estimated to be the strongest of the SSA-North’s three brigades with some 3,000 troops.
According to KNG, there may be around 2,000 Chinese working in mining, timber logging and charcoal production in the main areas of Kutkai Township and Mongkoe in Kachin State. Chinese workers are busy harvesting timber and charcoal from different areas in the two townships, said witnesses in Mongkoe. The number of Chinese trucks crossing into border town of Mongkoe, from Manghai in China, has more than doubled from 30 to about 70 trucks every day, witnesses said.
Local military analysts said the Burmese government is planning to eliminate ethnic armed groups in Northern Shan State because the oil pipeline from Burma’s western coast in Arakan State to Ruili, in China, will cross the region.
At the same time, the building of Chinese military posts in Manghai, the former headquarters of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), is about to be accomplished. The posts will monitor the political volatility in Burma, referring military analysts KNG said.
News of armed clashes between the SSA and the Burma Army have become manifest steadily in these days. Burma Army soldiers based in Shan State East’s Mongton township on the Thai-Burma border were also under surprise attacks by the SSA ‘South’ during the last month.
There has been continued skirmishing between Burma Army troops and the SSA-North in Mongshu and Tangyan Townships since last month. In line with the Thailand-based Shan Herald Agency for News, the battles are severely upsetting civilians in numerous townships.  Dozens of civilians in the conflict zones were reportedly killed and injured by the Burma Army’s heavy shells. The latest report says some 1,000 people, including the injured, are seeking shelter in Monghsu Township.
So far there have been five clashes between SSAs No. 801 Battalion and Burma Army patrolling units in Kehsi Township.  Currently, thousands of Burma Army troops are moving around the SSA controlled area and along the Salween which serves as a shared boundary with the UWSA.
The scenario seems starting a fresh war in the Shan State as the ethnic armed groups have a strong will in favor of their self-determination or autonomy. The junta’s recent polls become visible as sham and farce.

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